![]() ![]() Up to the Fukushima accident there were 443 reactors operating worldwide.īy a simple graphical piecewise interpolation of the number of reactors per year a total of 15.000 reactoryears can be estimated. The number of nuclear reactors worldwide increased drastically from 1955 until 1988, from which date the number is nearly constant. So the number of 4 severe accidents seems quite reasonable. One could argue that Windscale was not a civil but a military reactor, but then in Fukushima there is probably more than one reactor involved. On level 5 there are some more accidents and on level 6 is only one, but they were in other nuclear facilities, not in power reactors. Also the present Fukushima accident (or accidents?) is level 5, at least at the moment (). ![]() Chernobyl (1986) is the only one on level 7, Three Miles Island(1979), Windscale (1957) are on level 5. Up to now there are at least 4 reactor accidents on INES scale 5 or more. This can be done by using the Poisson distribution. Thus we are able to calculate the probability that no reactor in the world, in UK or in another country, will have an accident within the next 5, 10 or 20 years.Or that at least on reactor will fail severely. Here I tried a very simple empirical approach: We know the number of nuclear power reactors in the world, we know (probably) the number of severe accidents up to now, so we can calculate the empirical failure probability of a single reactor per year. As far as I understand they use methods of risk analysis to calculate the failure probability of the nuclear reactor. There are a lot of studies on the probability of accidents in a nuclear power plant. ![]()
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